Development of Scenarios for Older Adult Counseling in Iran toward the 2041 Horizon

Abstract

Introduction and Aim: Population ageing, together with rapid social, technological, economic, and policy transformations, has increased the need to reconsider the structure and delivery of counseling services for older adults. This study aimed to identify the major drivers and critical uncertainties and to develop future scenarios for older adult counseling in Iran toward the 2041 horizon.

Methodology: This qualitative foresight study was conducted from 2023 to 2025. The study population consisted of experts in counseling, psychology, ageing, and futures studies, of whom 21 were selected through purposive and snowball sampling. Data were collected through documentary analysis, semi-structured interviews, and an Impact–Uncertainty Questionnaire. Qualitative data were analyzed using open and axial coding within the STEEP framework. Drivers were then evaluated according to their potential impact and degree of uncertainty, and factors scoring above 6.5 on both dimensions were considered critical uncertainties. Alternative states were developed for the critical uncertainties, and cross-impact relationships were rated on a scale from -3 to +3. The resulting data were analyzed using Scenario Wizard software, and the final scenarios were validated by five experts.

Findings: Initial analysis identified 137 conceptual implications, including 38 social, 44 technological, 18 economic, 12 environmental, and 25 political implications. Following refinement, 13 critical uncertainties entered the scenario-development stage, for which 41 alternative states were constructed. Analysis of 33,592,320 possible configurations in Scenario Wizard produced three strong scenarios with zero incompatibility and 332 weak scenarios. The final scenarios were “Reinventing Older Adult Counseling: The Emergence of Smart Services and Digital Transformation,” “Transformative Older Adult Counseling: A Synthesis between Continuity and Fundamental Change,” and “A New Counseling System: An Active Approach in the Age of Artificial Intelligence and Genetics.” Their overall validation scores were 6.30, 6.18, and 6.86, respectively, and all exceeded the acceptance threshold of 5.

Conclusion: The future of older adult counseling in Iran is likely to be shaped primarily by diversified service demands, digital transformation, data-driven approaches, genetics and neuroscience, insurance coverage, specialized professional education, and interdisciplinary interventions. The third scenario represented the most coherent and favorable pathway, highlighting the need for anticipatory policymaking, stronger specialized training, digital infrastructure development, and an integrated and flexible counseling system for older adults.